Liveblogging Sidewalk Labs’ Master Innovation and Development Plan, Bonus Entry 7: The Toronto Star, Sidewalk Labs, and the tediousness of Us v Them journalism

Posted on August 21, 2019 by bhaggart

Over and over again

Monday’s Toronto Star editorial praising Sidewalk Labs’ waterfront proposal as preferable to the local-developer-beholden status quo is the type of article that drives policy experts up the wall. Political journalists’ tendency to reduce any policy issue to a tribal battle royale is a sadly accurate truism, as we relearn every election season. And it comes at a real cost to substantive political debate.

(Bianca Wylie also has a very good response to said editorial. Check it out.)

This tendency is on full display in this empty-calorie editorial. It simultaneously turns a complex policy issue – the suitability of Sidewalk Labs’ Master Innovation and Development Plan – into a left-right political horse race (“Suddenly the critics of Sidewalk Labs, especially those on the left, seem happy to embrace the premier’s judgment about what’s best for the waterfront”) while invoking a false dichotomy (“Because Sidewalk Labs is a terrible deal for traditional developers … that’s one reason it has real potential to be good for the rest of us”).

This us-versus-them argument is the type you make if you are either unwilling or unable to discuss issues of actual substance.

Rather than injecting some desperately needed fact-based analysis into the local Sidewalk Labs debate, the august minds at the Star go straight to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s possible motivations for saying that it’s a “terrible deal for the taxpayers” while also insinuating that Sidewalk Labs critics (of which I am definitely one) are agreeing with Ford purely for political reasons. Oh, and asserting that the project’s opponents are “shortsighted” complainers standing in the way of what will be a glorious urban development.

It’s a neat trick: accusing the project’s opponents of lacking substance while failing to actually make a single substantive argument in favour of the actual, as opposed to imagined, project.

For the record, I’ve little doubt that Doug Ford has the best interests of Ontario condo developers at heart, or that the status quo is ugly condo buildings all the way down.

But that doesn’t mean that Sidewalk Labs’ plan is a positive alternative for Torontonians as this editorial assumes, and that just by its mere existence “it has real potential to be good for the rest of us” (i.e., non-developers). That’s the kind of conclusion you can only come to if you haven’t dug into the substance of the MIDP.

Ford is correct. Deal with it

Here’s the thing: The Star editorial never takes seriously Ford’s claim. Instead, it seems to assume that because Ford said it, it must be wrong, and even if he’s correct his motives are corrupt so there’s no need to think about the substance of his claim.

This is a problem for two reasons. First, it moves us further away from a fact-based world in which assertions can be confirmed or rejected based on the truth of the assertion, and toward a world in which something is considered true if someone on “our team” says it.

Second, as it happens, in this case Ford is correct: this is a bad deal for taxpayers.

In saying this I’m not embracing “the premier’s judgment.” I didn’t come to this conclusion because I’m a lefty, Sidewalk Labs-hatin’, Ford-worshipin’, tech-despisin’ luddite. I came to it because I actually read the entire report. Very, very closely. And in reading it I emerged with an (informed) opinion about it, one that drew on what I’ve learned over 20 years as (at varying times) a professional economist, a professor of political science, and an analyst for various federal parliamentary committees. This last role, which involved drafting many committee reports, proved very useful in helping me realize that the MIDP is a sales document, not a substantive plan.

Team substance

Like many others who are experts in data governance, intellectual property, innovation, urban governance and so forth and who are not very fond of this whole exercise, I’m drawing my conclusions from professional expertise, not from any tribal allegiance. When you come at an issue from a perspective of personal expertise or experience and if someone says something that you think is correct, you’ll agree with them, no matter their political affiliation.

In short, I’m not on Team Ford or Team Progressive. I’m interested in the substantive issue.

It should also go without saying that just because somebody agrees with someone on one issue doesn’t mean they’ll agree with them on everything. Most grown-ups are capable of making such distinctions.

(And even if we’re just talking politics, the Star should try asking ultra-right-wing developer-friendly leftist NDP Sidewalk Labs critic Charlie Angus if he thinks that the MIDP is a “terrible deal for the taxpayers.”)

For my part, just because I have some expertise in this area doesn’t mean that my analysis is infallible, but I’m not wrong in the opinions-of-the-earth’s-shape-differ manner that the Star editorial staff is deploying here. This is not a political opinion I’m expressing.

I’d be happy for someone to point out where I’ve gotten something wrong. One of the reasons I’ve undertaken this blogging project is precisely because I want to hear from others who have read the report to let me know where I’ve misunderstood something. That’s how academics roll.

Of course, to do that, you’d have to actually have read the report and counter my analysis with actual evidence.

Sadly, the Star editorial board shows no signs in helping us reach any kind of deeper understanding of the Sidewalk Labs project. Almost two months after Sidewalk Labs unleashed its behemoth on Toronto, the Star here is treating the MIDP as a serious policy document merely because it exists, rather than dissecting it to see if its claims actually adds up.

Because, yeah, it would be great “if Sidewalk Labs actually managed to pull off its grand vision of environmentally sustainable buildings with a welcome share of rental housing, family-sized units and greater affordability.”

Unfortunately, based on my reading of the MIDP, this vision is little more than a pipe dream that follows the Silicon Valley playbook of “Overpromise and underdeliver” à la Elon Musk.  But again, that’s just what I concluded based on two decades of relevant experience and having actually read the report.

A desperate plea for substance

Here’s my challenge to the Toronto Star: Rather than treating this issue like a hockey game or a morality play (Progressives v Evil Ford; the Star versus Evil Developers), tell us why you think the MIDP is a good deal for taxpayers, and in what specific ways it is preferable to the status quo.

Tell us why and how you think that Sidewalk Labs, a company with no track record, is capable of realizing its “grand vision.”

Tell us why you think that Toronto’s only choice is between Sidewalk Labs’ plan and the status quo.

Run a series covering each of Sidewalk Labs’ promised innovations. Interview actual experts to see which ones are actually viable.

And while you’re at it, tell us why you think that its “innovative” governance proposals, which would create five new agencies and give Sidewalk Labs control over foundational standards, is preferable to the status quo.

Actually look into how situating Google in the heart of the Toronto tech scene would affect Canadian technological development.

Oh, and you can also tell us why you think it’s “shortsighted” to be concerned about Sidewalk Labs’ “urban data” (a term they coined that obscures much more than it illuminates) approach to data governance.

Or why it’s not a concern that so much of their innovative affordable housing plans seems to hinge on changing Toronto’s rules on how small a legal apartment is allowed to be.

Of course, to do all this you would have to actually engage in substantive analysis, instead of playing yet another tedious game of Us v Them.

Do better, Toronto Star.

Previous Master Innovation and Development Plan liveblog entries and relevant documents available here

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Liveblogging Sidewalk Labs’ Master Innovation and Development Plan, Entry 33: The MIDP Volume 2, The Innovations, Chapter 5: Digital Innovation, Parts 1 and 2

Posted on August 21, 2019 by bhaggart

Our journey of self-discovery and digital innovation continues…

Previous Master Innovation and Development Plan liveblog entries and relevant documents available here

Part 1: Providing More Affordable and Flexible Digital Infrastructure (pp. 384-399)

I’ll leave it to others to discuss the technical merits of Sidewalk Labs’ plan in Part 1. #notmyfield

Goal 1: Expand opportunity with ubiquitous connectivity (pp. 386-393)

I will note, however, that it’s always good to be the company that comes up with dominant standard, which is what its Super-PON (Passive Optical Network) seems to be an attempt at.

And would you look at that: it’s a Google Fiber technology.

This would seem to be an enormous conflict of interest, and one that is not disclosed in the report.

  • Why did Sidewalk Labs choose this technology over other technologies?
  • How does it compare to other potential competitors?
  • What happens if Google’s preferred standard doesn’t become the norm?
  • Can we stop referring to Sidewalk Labs as an independent company now?

Goal 2:  Reduce installation and maintenance costs with an “urban USB port” (pp. 394-397)

Another standard; another technology that Sidewalk Labs wants to deliver. They call it “Koala.”

  • What would be the effect on these neighbourhoods if Koala doesn’t become the industry standard?
  • Would it be a proprietary standard?
  • At what stage is this technology? Sidewalk Labs says it “has designed” it. Is it ready to go? The answer is not clear from this document, and it really should be.

Goal 3: Use distributed credential infrastructure to protect privacy (pp. 397-399)

Again, #notmyfield; would be interested in an independent evaluation. I’m just happy they don’t mention “the blockchain.”

Part 2: Setting Data Standards That Are Open and Secure (pp. 400-413)

I’ll defer to others who know more about the technical aspects of these issues. I’ll only note that this section discusses open data issues only in the context of security concerns (p. 402). Which is fine as far as it goes, but, again, should public surveillance data be open to everyone who wants to see it (assuming it should be collected in the first place)?

Also, as I’ve noted previously, this emphasis on open data standards reflects a philosophy of government that assumes that competition for the provision of public services is always and everywhere a good thing. This is a perspective that, while not indefensible, requires a wider public debate over the role of private service providers and competition in municipal services.

As with every policy issue, there are costs and benefits to such an approach (e.g., the bureaucracy needed to assure a fundamental level of quality control over competing private service providers), but the main point here is that this type of policy setting should not be treated as a technical exercise.

On bureaucracy

That last point, on the need to ensure quality of service providers using this system, highlights an important flaw in Sidewalk Labs’ overall plan. Namely, the hugely underestimate both the cost and size of bureaucracies that would be needed to oversee, regulate and maintain these very complex systems. As we saw with the WTMA proposal, none of them are seriously costed out and no employment figures are presented. With the data standards case, we see yet another example of this tendency.

On Sidewalk Labs’ role in data standards

The paragraph on page 402, which commits Sidewalk Labs to work with others to implement tools “to achieve its goals for standards and security…” doesn’t answer the question. It focuses on the tools, not the standards. How will the standards be set? Hopefully this question will be answered below.

Goal 1: Enable third- party innovation with published standards (pp. 403-407)

  • Data “must be publicly accessible to improve upon, build on top of, or even replace.” (p. 403)
  • New governance/standards alert: Proposal: Sidewalk will choose the standards, either adopting existing ones or working to create them (p. 403)
  • Proposal: publicly accessible data by default.
  • Proposal: software to integrate with these systems would be open source. (p. 403)

Its likely standards (p. 304) #notmyfield:

  • GTFS Realtime, a standard for reporting the location of public transit vehicles within the neighbourhood in real time (see sidebar)
  • General Bikeshare Feed Specification
  • (GBFS), for reporting the availability of bike-share bikes and docks
  • Brick, a standard for describing building infrastructure, including HVAC systems
  • IFC, a standard for building information modelling, along with the Linked Data extensions
  • OpenStreetMap, a representation of roads and other public realm infra- structure
  • CityGML and CityJSON, standards for describing building shapes and sizes
  • OpenTraffic and OpenLR, emerging standards for describing traffic and street segments
  • Public Life Data Protocol, a standard from Gehl Institute on the use of public space

APIs would be public/open.  #notmyfield

Goal 2: Use best-in-class resiliency and security (pp. 408-413)

#notmyfield. Would love to hear independent technical analyses.

I will note that this is going to be a major pain in the neck since ubiquitous surveillance and networking means a target-rich environment for problems. The district’s maintenance department will have to include both people to fix cracks in the pavement and bad code. This is why it was essential to see a plan for a staffing breakdown by proposed agency.

Sidewalk Labs commits to “Responsible AI” (p. 411). Again, #notmyfield, but here are the principles they’re promoting:

Fairness and equity; Accountability; Transparency and explainability; Relevance; Value alignment; Respect for human dignity.

Data localization

… or “data residency,” as it says here (the report contains two mentions of “data localization”, and five of “data residency”)

Sidewalk Labs commits to using its best efforts at data localization – for storage, process, and communication – as long as there are Canadian-based providers who offer appropriate levels of security, redundancy, and reliability. To the extent that it is deemed infeasible to store data solely in Canada, Sidewalk Labs would be transparent about such a decision. (p. 412)

Three caveats here: “best efforts”, and “appropriate levels of …” are the most obvious. However, this statement only binds Sidewalk Labs, and not the “countless” other companies that would be using this data.

This omission is in keeping with its October 2018 draft data governance proposal, in which it said “Sidewalk Labs does not believe that it is sensible to impose a data localization requirement for innovators in Quayside.” (Digital Governance Proposals for DSAP Consultation, p. 35)

It helps to read the supporting documents, doesn’t it?

Sidewalk Labs also commits to following the law of the land in this area, so, thanks?

Part 3 tomorrow…

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Liveblogging Sidewalk Labs’ Master Innovation and Development Plan, Entry 32: The MIDP Volume 2, The Innovations, Chapter 5: Digital Innovation, Introduction

Posted on August 20, 2019 by bhaggart

A series of posts built “from the internet up”

Previous Master Innovation and Development Plan liveblog entries and relevant documents available here

There’s a lot to unpack in this chapter, so I’m going to divide it into five (5) posts. That’s a lot of reading, and even more writing, so let’s get started.

Chapter 5: Digital Innovation (pp. 374-463)

Introduction (pp. 376-383)

For some strange reason, Sidewalk Labs has left to the end of its volume on Innovations its discussion of how it will make the Quayside etc. district a smart city. It’s an odd move, when you consider that:

  • the only logical reason the unproven company Sidewalk Labs was hired was because of its connection to Google, the most digital of the digital companies. The digital is supposed to be its competitive advantage;
  • so many of the preceding “innovations” depend on digital connectivity and data collection to function, which would seem to make leading with the underlying system a no-brainer;
  • its initial sales pitch in its response to the Waterfront Toronto Request for Proposals, was that it would build “the world’s first “neighbourhood from the internet up” (Project Vision, p. 15). The phrase “from the internet up appears nine more times in that document; and
  • most importantly, the treatment of data, surveillance and privacy were what has been (rightly) subjected to the most sustained, principled, and coherent public criticism.

The reason, of course, isn’t really strange at all. From the very beginning Sidewalk Labs and Waterfront Toronto have always been more comfortable talking about cool potential new physical technologies than the data that necessarily makes these smart-city things possible. Back in the pre-Facebook/Cambridge Analytica days, attaching “connectivity” and “the internet” to everything was still seen as a winning public-relations strategy. However, now that people are beginning to understand the pervasive surveillance and data collection needed to run a Quayside-style project in the way envisioned by companies like Sidewalk Labs, that calculation has changed.

And so, the details of how Sidewalk Labs will set up its surveillance network (which is what it is, even though the word “surveillance” appears only twice in the entire MIDP) are buried in the last possible section.

Still, addressing digital and data issues 1,154 pages into a report is better than never discussing them.

Four questions I’ll be keeping in mind:

  1. How Sidewalk Labs situates itself in its proposed governance structures.
  2. The degree of flexibility when it comes to data governance.
  3. The role of standards in this project: who is setting them, and their effects.
  4. The level of detail provided – I’ll want an advance over Sidewalk Labs October 2018 digital governance proposal.

What I’m not expecting:

  • Any major input from Waterfront Toronto, even though they’re the public authority who ideally whould be leading this debate (granting the reality that they lack a deep digital bench).

It’s the final chapter of Volume 2. Let’s go.

Their identified goals (p. 377)

  • affordable digital infrastructure
  • digital infrastructure that is “open to everyone” (everyone? Quality standards for companies that want to piggyback on this infrastructure (will it be public?)

Urban data

information gathered in the city’s physical environment, including the public realm, publicly accessible spaces, and even some private buildings. (p. 377)

That covers a lot of ground.

It’s the surveillance, stupid

This formulation is incorrect:

While Canada has a strong foundation of privacy laws around personal information, and recognizes privacy as a fundamental human right, urban data creates a new set of questions that have surfaced during the Sidewalk Toronto public consultation process.

It’s not “urban data” that creates a new set of questions. It’s Sidewalk Labs’ desire to institute a new system of pervasive, ubiquitous surveillance in all public spaces “and even some private buildings” that “creates a new set of questions.”

Talking about “urban data” is a way of reframing the surveillance question so you don’t have to use the word “surveillance.”

Never on the table: Minimized or no pervasive surveillance, just: how can we classify the data we collect?

Who should set data-governance regulations?

  • Sidewalk Labs is big on arguing that the Eastern Waterfront is the appropriate “scale” on which to realize its dreams. Why is a tiny parcel of land in Toronto the appropriate scale to test out data-privacy and surveillance laws and institutions, and not either Ontario or Canada?
  • Why does it make sense to create new data and surveillance laws at this level, with none of the parliamentary review process of other levels of government?
  • What happens if the governments of Ontario or Canada eventually develop comprehensive data- and surveillance laws that contradict Sidewalk Labs’ regulations?
  • Federal or provincial regulatory changes could presumably affect the degree of profitability of Sidewalk Labs’ Eastern Waterfront investment. Would it threaten to pull out of Toronto?

It would be unseemly if Sidewalk Labs were to use its presence as a de facto governing entity in any Eastern Waterfront development as a stick with which to threaten Canadian governments to develop laws in its or Google’s narrow economic interest.

  • Will Sidewalk Labs and Google commit to not lobbying the federal or provincial governments on data and surveillance regulations, given this conflict of interest?

clear standards that make data publicly accessible, secure, and resilient (p. 377)

  • Should all data be publicly accessible?

Standards setting in action

Sidewalk Labs proposes to launch a minimal set of digital services that would catalyze this ecosystem of urban innovation. These services and applications — all of which would be open to competition and subject to the pro- posed responsible data use process — represent innovations currently not being pursued by the market but that remain essential to achieving Waterfront Toronto’s quality-of-life objectives. (p. 378)

Conditions proposed by Sidewalk Labs to “catalyze” an urban innovation system (p. 380)

  • Shared digital infrastructure
  • Open and secure approach to architecture and standards (physical, data format, security and resilience, protocol, p. 381)
  • Digital services
  • Trusted process for responsible use (i.e., its proposed Responsible Data Use Guidelines and Assessments)

In what parts of the digital project would Sidewalk Labs participate? (pp. 380-381)

  • Core network – in other words, its role will be, to borrow a phrase, to build “the neighbourhood from the internet up”
  • Designing the standardized mounts
  • Various core digital for the aforementioned innovation streams (i.e., the chapters in this Volume)
  • Ubiquitous wi-fi
  • Software defined network
  • Super-passive optical network.

In short, it looks like Sidewalk Labs would be responsible for building the base platform and setting its standards.

Who would makes purchase decisions?

Procurement is a key issue. I have a feeling it’ll be addressed in Volume 3.

It’s all about surveillance “urban data”

It’s the provision of a ubiquitous surveillance network that will allow not only Sidewalk Labs, but other companies to develop “countless” other applications:

Sidewalk Labs believes the urban data generated by these services would catalyze third parties to create countless other applications to improve quality of life, along with the application-specific hardware designed to support them. (p. 383)

The IDEA District is a surveillance district. It is being designed to allow for ubiquitous surveillance. Any restrictions on surveillance will be interpreted by Sidewalk Labs as a restriction on the ability to increase quality of life. And also on their ability to make money, as suggested by the fact that they want to be compensated with bonus payments for not engaging in unfettered data sharing and data-based advertising.

Private governance: The Urban Data Trust

It would initially be a private entity that “could evolve into a public-sector or quasi-public agency over time.” (p. 383)

Next up, part two of the Urban Innovation chapter.

 

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Liveblogging Sidewalk Labs’ Master Innovation and Development Plan, Entry 31: The MIDP Volume 2, The Innovations, Chapter 4: Sustainability

Posted on August 19, 2019 by bhaggart
  • Phase 1: Design an advanced power grid
  • Phase 2: ???
  • Phase 3: Profit!

Previous Master Innovation and Development Plan liveblog entries and relevant documents available here 

Chapter 4: Sustainability (pp. 297-373)

Introduction (pp. 298-303)

I really don’t know anything about these areas in and of themselves, so here are a few questions about governance and financing.

  • The big question in this section is, how close to deployable are these technologies? What factors are shaping their deployment (e.g., return on investment, existing technological limitations)?
  • On finance, given the huge positive externalities from public utilities, does it make sense to turn their provision over to a private entity?
  • Related, what options are being taken off the table due to the need for Sidewalk Labs to receive a return on its investment?
  • In terms of public financing, the Eastern Waterfront is only a small part of Toronto. What is the business case for deploying scarce public resources here and not elsewhere?
  • Sidewalk Labs practices technological solutionism (i.e., they see every problem through the lens of technological solutions, usually provided by for-profit companies). What solutions are they missing? What alternatives are not on the table?

Also, a reminder that results reported in this chapter assume not only full deployment everywhere in their “IDEA District,” but that all the technologies, from mass timber skyscraper production to self-driving cars, will work perfectly and on time. Would Sidewalk Labs have the power to compel private entities to go along with their plans?

Part 1: Creating Low-Energy Buildings (pp. 304-313)

Goal 1: Deliver Passive House–inspired buildings (pp. 307-309)

Goal 2: Improve modelling through real-time metering (pp. 310-312)

Goal 3:  Use digital tools to tie energy outcomes to energy codes (p. 313)

Cometh the energy bureaucracy

Sidewalk Labs sells its energy-monitoring idea as a way to improve efficiency, and to tailor it to allow for differences in energy needs:

At the full scale of the IDEA District, with a large number of buildings, this tool could form the basis for a real-time energy code that adjusts dynamically for occupancy, tenant type, and weather to ensure fair and appropriate energy use regulation. (p. 313)

Like so much in this report, Sidewalk Labs is downplaying the huge amount of regulation and bureaucracy their supposedly “smart” solution would require. Allowing different energy targets for different uses would require regulations setting out different categories of housing, occupancy, individuals and occupations. It would then require decisions about what level of energy use constitutes “fair and appropriate.” Best of all, this is the type of thing that can make people/voters very, very angry.

If the goal of this project were to increase the regulatory burden, one would be hard-pressed to create a more-perfect system.

Part 2: Optimizing Building Energy Systems (pp. 314-323)

Goal 1: Create automated “Schedulers” for offices, homes, and building operators (pp. 316-323)

Part 3: Making Full Electrification Affordable (pp. 324-333)

Goal 1: Design an advanced power grid (pp. 326-329)

You have to admire the cojones a planning document where “Design an advanced power grid” gets two-and-a-half pages of text (four overall, one of which is a full-page pull quote), while the plan to design a programmable thermostat gets almost five pages of text and eight pages total.

The take-away: Creating a series of smart thermostats is exactly twice as difficult as designing an advanced power grid.

Goal 2: Implement an innovative “monthly budget” bill target (pp. 330-333)

I’m not sure how well “dynamic hourly rates” (read: Uber-style surge pricing) for electricity will go over with Quayside residence.

This type of “innovation” raises another point I haven’t seen mentioned elsewhere, namely that it assumes that it can get away with treating Quayside/Waterfront/whatever residents differently from other Torontonians.

And I don’t mean this in terms of the extra conveniences and cool factor touted by Sidewalk Labs. Let’s not forget that for all the talk of Quayside having timber buildings and “raincoats,” for most of the next decade, should this all come to pass, the whole area will be a construction zone. Moreover, you can bet that the first several iterations of these new technologies are going to be as glitchy as hell, particularly since Sidewalk Labs will do their best to rush these products to market. That’s just how Silicon Valley rolls.

Also, living in this new neighbourhood is going to be expensive. Sidewalk Labs’ biggest idea for how to fund all these new bureaucracies and infrastructure is user fees and new taxes.

The big question is, how will this extra tax burden (and it doesn’t matter whether you call them user fees or taxes, residents will be paying them) and living in a construction site amid beta-tested technologies affect demand for Quayside/whatever units?

Basic economic reasoning would suggest that these factors would all depress demand for these units, as well as the prices they can command. This effect will be proportionate to the extent to which other Toronto housing units are seen as a substitute for Quayside/whatever units: The more that Torontonians treat Quayside like any other neighbourhood, the more pronounced this depressed demand/prices would be.

And while Sidewalk Labs is obviously counting on Quayside/etc. shininess and novelty to drive demand, there’s also the possibility/likelihood that these extra costs and inconveniences (especially in the short run), combined with its coveted light-rail link will lead Torontoinans to want to visit Quayside occasionally rather than live there. Rail links work both ways.

My point here is that these type of less-than-rosy scenarios, which arewell within the realm of the possible, are nowhere even hinted at in Sidewalk Labs’ Panglossian proposal. Neither is it in the urbanMetrics report, which merely ran the numbers that Sidewalk Labs gave it. I saw no discussion of substitution effects in urbanMetrics’ report. As far as I can tell, Sidewalk Labs provided the company with “Development figures (i.e. total floor area estimates, detailed allocations by land use) and subsequent supporting assumptions (i.e. population, employment, construction costs, development timing and phasing etc.),” which they assume are accurate (Economic Impact Analysis, p. 43). Sidewalk Labs has not, as far as I can find or recall, in its nearly 1,500-page report, provided any reasoning regarding how it arrived at these figures.

Maybe the information is buried in an appendix?

Tinier-than-Toronto-average apartments (if the law is changed to allow them), a decade-long construction zone and a uniquely high tax burden could all depress demand for this project.

Quick note on urban innovation

Sidewalk Labs’ entire pitch is built around the idea that there isn’t enough “innovation” in urban infrastructure, but there’s a very good reason for that. Glitchy websites are an inconvenience; glitchy buildings or traffic signals can get people killed.

Plus, residents are stuck in their cities; it’s hard to just up and move somewhere else when the entire system goes offline and you can’t even get into your house. I’m old enough to remember Vancouver’s “leaky condo” crisis. I recall the barely controlled fury of Vancouver residents appearing before the House Finance Committee to ask for some kind of relief. It was a fury born of the reality that, having sunk a significant portion of their life’s savings into a lemon of a primary residence, they were stuck in a kind of living nightmare.

Now imagine Quayside residents’ reactions the first time the trash pipes break. You can bet that even if Sidewalk Labs and Waterfront Toronto are directly responsible for the district, elected municipal, provincial and federal politicians will catch holy hell for whatever goes wrong.

Sidewalk Labs is pushing the best-case scenario, but it’s vital to remember that not all innovations work out. Being a guinea pig is great when you’re getting treats; it’s not so great when you’re the rodent being force fed the drug with the unexpected side effect. And when urban innovations don’t work out, they can turn one’s life into a living hell overnight. Sometimes conservatism and caution – the principles baked into our zoning bylaws – are good things.

Part 4: Using Clean Energy to Heat and Cool Buildings (p. 334-343)

Goal 1: Design a thermal grid to distribute clean energy (pp. 336-339)

Sure, why not?  #notmyfield

I would, however, like an independent assessment of their proposal as outlined in Appendix document “Thermal Energy Grid: Phase 2 report,” please.

The big question is, who can provide this assessment? Waterfront Toronto can’t; the Plan Development Agreement places them in a clear conflict of interest. (Yet another reason why this entire project is fundamentally flawed.) City of Toronto, it’s up to you.

Goal 2: Capture building “waste” heat, geothermal energy, wastewater heat, and other clean energy source (pp. 340-343)

Same demand as above. Also, these proposals assume that it can be expanded over the entire “IDEA District.” But what happens if not everyone (e.g., the privately owned Keating land) wants to play ball? After all, even Sidewalk Labs isn’t proposing that it should be able to expropriate other people’s land.

Part 5: Reducing Waste and Improving Recycling (pp. 344-357)

I’ve dealt with this issue in a previous post, and it’s #notmyfield, so I’ll leave it to others, except for a few comments (see below).

Goal 1: Improve waste sorting through responsive digital signage (pp. 346-349)

Goal 2: Implement “pay-as-you-throw” smart waste chutes (pp. 350-351)

New tax alert: Again, another tax on a small subsection of Toronto residents that won’t be paid by apartment dwellers elsewhere in the city. Key issue: how will this tax affect demand for these properties.

Goal 3: Reduce contamination during removal with vacuum tubes (pp. 352-353)

Goal 4: Convert organic waste into clean energy (pp. 354-357)

Part 6: Managing Stormwater Naturally and Actively (pp. 358-365)

Another Waterfront district-level-only plan.

New bureaucracy alert: It would be up to the Open Space Alliance, which as Dr. Natasha Tusikov points out, has a ridiculously expansive mandate, to “operate and maintain the stormwater system.” (p. 359)

Goal 1: Design green infrastructure into a neighbourhood (p. 360-361)

Goal 2: Monitor stormwater levels and quality with digital tools (p. 362-365)

Public Engagement (pp. 366-371)

In which public engagement as it relates to sustainability is discussed, and I am reminded again that Sidewalk Labs provides no list of the events it has held or the public members of its various panels.

And that’s our show for today.

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Liveblogging Sidewalk Labs’ Master Innovation and Development Plan, Entry 30: The MIDP Volume 2, The Innovations, Chapter 3: Buildings and Housing

Posted on August 18, 2019 by bhaggart

In which I start off thinking I won’t have anything to say and end up writing a lot. Also, on the desirability, or lack thereof, of super-tiny, totally “livable” studio apartments. And! The economist in me has something to say about rent caps.

Previous Master Innovation and Development Plan liveblog entries and relevant documents available here

Chapter 3: Buildings and Housing (pp. 202-293)

Introduction (p. 204-207)

Part 1: Accelerating Construction Timelines (pp. 208-235)

…through the use of an unproven technology (“mass timber” for 30-storey buildings) and precut buildings. (p. 205). Which would make property more valuable, leading to higher taxes, which could be funnelled into affordable housing. (p. 205)

Sidewalk Labs identifies customized buildings and costly steel and concrete as the enemy (high costs for design). The solution: cookie-cutter buildings made out of wood. (p. 208)

Question: How would Sidewalk Labs be involved in the supply chain? (e.g., p. 209 comment)

Goal 1: Catalyze a new sustainable industry around mass timber (pp. 210-219)

Another reminder that this proposals projections are based on best-case scenarios: “Using wood for all 2.6 million square feet of building development in Quayside would be equivalent to removing over 20,000 cars from the road annually.” (p. 210, emphasis added)

Two pages on “Ensuring fire resistance with ‘Shikkui plaster’” (pp. 214-215).

I’m a bit unclear about the status of this technology. Is it ready to go? What still needs to be done to prepare it for mass distribution and use?

Durability?

This may be a bit out of the blue, but this section reminded me of a friend from undergrad whose family was in construction. New homes, he said, were designed to last just over two “generations”: they’ll start to fall apart after they’ve been sold twice (e.g., about 40 or so years I think). How long are these buildings supposed to last? I didn’t see anything in here about that.

Goal 2: Launch a factory to produce a complete library of building parts (pp. 220-232)

Regulation change: Sidewalk Labs wants to speed up regulatory approvals by getting the various cookie-cutter building pieces pre-approved, rather than, I’m guessing, the regulator/city approving the final project. (p. 22)

Sidewalk Labs promises “unique designs” based on a selection of pre-set “parts.” (p. 220)

A driver of affordable housing (we pass the savings on to you!): “By injecting more certainty into the building process, Sidewalk Labs hopes to enable projects that meet both the city’s objectives for affordability and the waterfront’s standards for aesthetic excellence.” (p. 221).

Descriptions of the parts are on pages 222-223. Architects’ vision exercises on pages 224-225. This is beyond my expertise. Engineers and architects: Do these plans make sense?

Do these numbers make sense?

I’d feel a lot more comfortable about the solidity of Sidewalk Labs’ plans if this sentence were a lot less conditional:

Sidewalk Labs believes the structural assembly of a building could ultimately reach speeds of one floor a day, compared with a typical on-site construction timeline of one floor per week. (p. 227, emphasis added)

As far as I can tell, their big, oft-repeated claim that they can complete projects 35% faster than today’s standard is based on this guess – no citations provided in the report:

To complete a 12-storey building — which involves basic structural assembly as well as the installation of all finishes, the connection of all electromechanical equipment, and the execution of all tests — Sidewalk Labs estimates that its facto-ry-based process can reduce construction time from 20 months to 13 months, delivering projects 35 percent faster than today’s methods. (p. 227)

Goal 3: Coordinate the supply chain with a digital delivery system (pp. 233-235)

Proposed: A “Sidewalk Digital Fabrication system” to track the entire production process, from timber to building creation. (p. 234).

Sidewalk Labs would control the supply and value chain

Ah, here we go. In answer to my above question, Sidewalk Labs would “build the underlying infrastructure to support this advance system,” outsourcing some parts to other companies. (p. 234)

So: Ontario labour, Sidewalk Labs-run mill (?), Sidewalk Labs-controlled value chain?

And would the building parts be patented? Who would control the IP in them?

Part 2: Helping Neighbourhoods and Households Evolve (pp. 236-261)

The dream

Within a single neighbourhood people could find affordable space to pursue their professional dreams, whether a single co-working desk to plot out a startup or a short-term stall to sell a hand-crafted confection. Homes could meet the needs of growing families and single-person households alike. (p. 236)

I’m really trying not to be churlish when I ask this, but doesn’t this describe a lot of downtown Toronto already?

Smaller – sorry, cozy – apartments equals more (affordable) units

an efficient approach to unit design would enable developers to create more overall units while retaining liveability, unlocking new value that could help meet the ambitious goals of affordable and below-market housing programs. (p. 237)

Goal 1: Create an adaptable “Loft” space built for all uses (pp. 238-245)

New regulation alert: “Sidewalk Labs plans to implement minimum targets on its Loft spaces for commercial usage, so they always reflect some level of mixture across commercial and residential uses.”

In other words, Sidewalk Labs wants to set bylaws for commercial and non-commercial building usage.

Huge savings mentioned on page 242. Again, would these designs work? Are they allowed under current bylaws? If not, why not? #notmyfield [Spoilers: I don’t think their proposals are currently street legal.]

Goal 2: Accelerate renovations with a flexible interior wall system (pp. 246-250)

Again, #notmyfield, so I have no idea how well this type of system would work, although I keep coming back to the thought that Sidewalk Labs got this job because they’re a Google company, and they don’t have any expertise in these types of issues. Expertise welcome…

Goal 3: Enable a safe, vibrant mix of uses with real- time building codes (pp. 251-252)

Ah, the real-time building code, which is zoned for specific, measurable variables and not land uses (building uses, not prescribed land uses? (p. 251)). Urban governance experts: can zoning bylaws be reconstructed in this way? What would be lost in doing so (Sidewalk Labs has already told us what would be gained)?

Question: What would the surveillance impacts of this surveillance network be?

I’d also like to see the worst-case scenarios of mixing industry/commercial with residential. A mom-and-pop craft jeweller (p. 252) seems pretty innocuous, but I’m betting that creative readers can imagine worse-case scenarios.

Still, it’s weird that Sidewalk Labs’ innovative vision involves something that reminds me of the tenement housing in New York from over a century ago. Those buildings were also mixed-use. But, again, this is an area I don’t know much about. Enlightenment welcome!

And just in common-sense mode, I’m not sure I’d put “restaurants” and “single-dwelling units” in a “use-neutral” category. Not sure I’d want to live above, say, a 24-hour diner.

Goal 4: Design affordable and flexible housing units (pp. 253-261)

Let’s get small

“micro-units” (smaller units that rent for less while remaining livable through efficient design) and co-living programs (which feature shared building amenities, such as communal kitchens, to enhance community while keeping rents lower). (p. 253)

This proposal would irk me a lot less if they weren’t trying to sell us on housing built around always having roommates and shared kitchen as an opportunity “to enhance community.” This was obviously written by someone who has never lived with other people. More likely, they’re suppressing a traumatic memory of the skanky refrigerators that everyone who has ever had a roommate has had to deal with.

Also, my first solo apartment – Bathurst and Harbord, as it happens – was smaller than many hotel bathrooms. It was designed for efficiency. It also couldn’t accommodate more than three people at any time. It was “liveable,” and my landlord was fantastic (shoutout to Carlos! Best landlord in Toronto), but I wouldn’t go overboard selling it as a fantastic solution for modern living.

Tone that pitch down, Don Draper.

Also, (and please note that I’m writing this in real time) I’m assuming that the reason these types of apartments are innovative is because they’re currently not allowed under existing bylaws? Would any existing rules have to change (and why are these rules there in the first place)? Or am I just being cynical? Again, #notmyfield.

Finally, “free in-building storage”? (p. 255) I’ll be my remaining shred of sanity that this would be included in the condo fees or rental price.

More oversell

Sidewalk Labs’ approach to public realm design is also meant to improve comfort for residents in efficient units. An expanded set of parks, plazas, and public spaces — comfortable year-round thanks to weather-mitigation systems— means people could spend more time outdoors, in spaces they can decide how to use themselves. (p. 259)

Speaking from experience, these outdoor won’t make up for apartments described as “liveable.”

Burying the lede

Answers! It turns out that the reason Sidewalk Labs’ proposals for building apartments that qualify as “liveable” is they’re currently not allowed:

Sidewalk Labs proposes to seek relief from existing relevant guidelines and standards related to unit size to enable developers in the project area to create these new occupancy types within the IDEA District. (p. 259)

I’m pretty sure that my bathroom-sized apartment was legal in 1996 (my landlord was very conscientious). There’s a very good reason that smaller apartments aren’t currently legal: it would be like living in a pod.

Sorry, I meant “affordability by design” (p. 260). Or, as it’s also known, “currently illegal.”

So, there you go. Sidewalk Labs can only deliver the goods if it implements building designs that are not allowed under the law as it stands. Couldn’t it have tried to stay within existing building codes, just a teensy bit? I guess that’s what makes them #innovators.

Part 3: Expanding Tools for Housing Affordability (pp. 262-287)

Or, as they’re also known, “‘liveable’ pods based on not-currently-allowable designs”

Sidewalk Labs proposes to create new types of units designed with affordability in mind from the start. (p. 263)

Goal 1: Create an ambitious program to meet the housing affordability challenge (pp. 269-277)

I’m not sure this sounds as impressive as you think it sounds

Sidewalk Labs commits to achieving this program mix in Quayside using a combination of existing government funding sources and new innovations. (p. 269)

Read as: Spending public money already earmarked for affordable housing and proposing a housing project that’s not allowed under current rules.

Rental caps: An evidence-free proposal

New regulation:

In Quayside, to ensure these units remain affordable for middle-income families, Sidewalk Labs plans to implement a rent cap. For example, rents for a two-bedroom unit would range from $1,492 to $2,238, according to existing rental bands established by the city. (p. 272)

Hm. If I were feeling more energetic, over 1,000 pages into this report, I’d link to the research showing something that every MA economics student is taught, which is that rent-controlled apartments (which is what this is) tend to paradoxically reduce the availability of affordable housing. At the very least, Sidewalk Labs needed to engage with this analysis. But that would’ve required the preparation of an actual report, and not a sales brochure.

Oh, fine. Here’s a Brookings report (centrist US think tank) that raises several issues with rent control. And here’s one from the Urban Institute (US) synthesizing research on rent control. tl;dr: Both suggest positive benefits for those in the rent-controlled apartments, and mixed results (often negative) for the community as a whole.

Here’s how I found them: I Googled them. Took me three seconds: Two to sigh and roll my eyes in frustration for having to put in more work to evaluating something that reads like it was assembled by a public-relations committee than the person who wrote it, and one to do the typing (I’m a fast typer).

Try it yourself: “effect of rent controls on affordable housing.” Skip the Google-featured shapeillinois.com result, which seems to be from a front for the US apartment building industry. There’s loads of stuff here.

To be clear, it’s fine to include this idea in a development plan, but you have to give it some context to show why it’s a good idea, especially since any economist would immediately be skeptical of it. As it stands, there’s nothing here to suggest why this idea would work, which makes it look like a promise that is easily made and poorly researched.

Goal 2: Achieve this program with innovation that yields greater affordability (pp. 278-287)

Where would the savings come from?

  1. Affordability by design (i.e., currently illegal designs for “liveable” apartments)
  2. “factory-based” timber construction
  3. New tax alert: condo resale fees. (p. 278)

And most of the funding comes from “factory-driven land value” (p. 279) – i.e., this bet on mass-produced timber buildings better work out.

Quayside would pony up $77 million to catalyze funding sources.

New bureaucracy alert: “a proposed housing trust,” one of whose jobs would be to “package some of these new funding sources to meet affordability objectives” (p. 280). So it would need some finance experience, in addition to (presumably) being a landlord.

You can’t keep a good number down

That 35% claim shows up again (p. 282). It would be interesting to search the report to see how many times each such claim is repeated.

Condo resale fee

Question: Quayside/Waterfront cannot be viewed in isolation from the rest of the Toronto condo market. How would an extra resale fee affect the entire market, including demand for Quayside condos? If I had to bet, I’d guess that it would depress the overall price of Quayside condos by about 1%. But of course there’s no such analysis mentioned here that I could see. Such an analysis would attempt an estimate at the total extra fees a Quayside resident would have to pay compared with other Torontonians.

Waterfront Housing Trust (p. 285)

Ah, here we go. The Waterfront Housing Trust would administer a “housing trust fund: a new financial vehicle to assemble and disburse funding for below-market housing across the Sidewalk Toronto project area.”

It “could assemble funding from a variety of public and private sources and “lock-box” this funding for below-market housing within the IDEA District … .” As well as “alternative funding sources.”

It would “provide capital grants and other financial support for developers, both private and not-for-profit, seeking to meet significant affordability commitments.”

Again, as I’ve said so many times by now, the word “could” is a hint that this is an idea, not a plan. It should be analyzed as such. This is not a substantive proposal.

Public Engagement (pp. 288-293)

In which public engagement is summarized on building and housing issues. And in which I’m reminded again that we don’t know the names of the people on Sidewalk Labs’ various panels, or have a complete list of all the meetings (public and private) they’ve held.

Bonus: I read the endnotes

Another reminder that this project assumes total success. And then some:

Unless otherwise noted, all calculations that refer to the full proposed IDEA District scale are inclusive of the entirety of its proposed geography, including all currently privately held parcels (such as Keating West). (p. 294)

That would be the Keating West that is otherwise excluded from Sidewalk Labs’ plans (it’s in private hands).

Phrased differently: While the report notes in other places that outside of Villiers West and Quayside, private owners would be invited to participate in these plans, the figures in this Chapter assume that everyone gets on board.

My recommendation: Pick a number and discount all of Sidewalk Labs’ predictions by that amount. There’s no way that it will hit these targets. Nothing every goes exactly according to plan. Readers would do well not to take this plan’s claims at face value.

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