(Wrote a version of this on Bluesky. Reposting here. Note to self: Write less on ephemeral social media and more here.)

I see Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin is joining the chorus of Canadians thanking Donald Trump for re-igniting a sense of Canadian nationalism. As gratifying as it was to see such a visceral, countrywide reaction to such an obviously unwarranted (and illegal) act of aggression, and as necessary as the reaction was, I’m a bit wary about basking in this surge of Canadian nationalism.

For one, I don’t know how substantive it will turn out to be. It has the feeling of a sugar high, like the unity Canadians felt at the onset of the pandemic. Within 2 years, that unity had collapsed into anger, paranoia, and an occupation of Canada’s capital. Its aftermath is now wrecking our politics.

Certainly, Canada has been threatened, and Canadians reacted appropriately. But we also haven’t been asked to really sacrifice anything yet. Reorienting the Canadian economy and society away from the US is absolutely essential. But (and here’s the old economist in me talking), it’s going to cost. A lot. And that’s a conversation we as a country have yet to have.

Personally, I think it’s a price with paying because the alternative is subjugating ourselves to (let’s be honest here) a fascist government. But, as with Covid, not everybody will see things that way.

As Linda McQuaig points out, deeper integration is very appealing to some right-wing groups and businesses. It’s the easy way to make money. But let’s be clear: deeper integration with an authoritarian country would necessarily eviscerate Canadian democracy. The consequences of deeper integration today are fundamentally different from what many could have imagined in 2001 and 2002, the last time deep integration was really on the Canadian policy radar. Back then, pro-integration advocates could at least argue plausibly that we were dealing with a rational state that respects the rule of law, sovereignty and human rights. No longer.

(An aside: McQuaig and other free trade critics are being proven 100% correct in the fears they raised 20-30 years ago. Trump’s threat to Canadian independence is, in many ways, the free trade chickens coming home to roost. The risk of US integration-driven prosperity (which did happen) was always the potential loss of Canadian sovereignty.

Brian Mulroney sure did like to roll the dice with the future of the country, didn’t he?)

My worry: Unless politicians are explicit about the existential and moral risks posed by Trump (subjugation by a fascist power) and make clear that his regime is a moral abomination on the level of the worst in history, many Canadians will balk when they’re asked to actually sacrifice. Because at a certain point, it’s so much easier (if morally compromising and soul-destroying) to go along to get along.

Only a shared sense of purpose, not reactive nationalism, will keep us from repeating the slow collapse of Canadian unity in the face of Covid. We need — and our politicians need to provide — both a full accounting of Trump’s threat and a nation-building project, presented in a way that will allow Canadians to understand and accept the costs it will entail. If you’re looking for a way to evaluate a political party or leadership, these are some pretty solid criteria.